A perfect storm that has been brewing for decades is now about to hit us.
The COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine will be the immediate triggers for the turmoil to come, but in reality they were the combined consequences of the gradual weakening of political representation, the decline of the middle class, and rising inequalities. around the world that brought us here.
We witnessed massive mobilizations around the world in 2020 and 2021. As COVID-19 took over our lives and livelihoods, millions of people took to the streets to protest different grievances related to local and global issues. This discontent was most clearly expressed at the height of the pandemic, but it was not created by it, it was simply accelerated and magnified by it.
In fact, long before the novel coronavirus emerged in China, millions of people around the world were already highly vulnerable and had only broken promises of social mobility, economic security, and social protection. People clung to empty promises of meritocracy and a better future, while slowly being pushed into destitution. So when the pandemic took away what little security they had, they had no choice but to take to the streets.
The case of Chile can help us understand this better. Chileans began protesting in October 2019, months before the first case of COVID-19 was recorded, in response to a 3.75 percent increase in metro ticket fares. The country was at a breaking point and a small change led to turmoil. In Chile, what tipped the balance came before COVID, but in many other countries it was the immediate consequences of the pandemic that led the masses to say “enough”.
And conditions have only gotten worse since then.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), global food prices have increased at an unprecedented rate since November 2021. These increases have been caused by pent-up demand for goods, increases in fuel prices and increases in the costs of agricultural supplies.
Vulnerable groups, who had already been spending most of their meager income on food, immediately felt the impact of these increases. And as heating costs also hit record levels, many families who were barely getting by until recently were forced to make tough trade-offs: between heating the house and buying basic supplies, putting food on the table and paying for the fare. from the bus to Get to work.
Social assistance programs proved invaluable around the world to help people cope with these impacts. However, it is important to recognize that such programs do not work equally well in all countries, and even when they do, they only serve to soften the impacts of these shocks: they do little or nothing to remove the real sources of vulnerability.
And in the midst of this devastation and chaos, Russia moved to invade Ukraine. Now, the war in the heart of Europe is adding fuel to the fire and pushing the world into even greater crisis.
With Russia and Ukraine being major suppliers of grain, energy sources (gas and fuel), and agricultural supplies, the disruptions caused by the war will further increase the cost of living and basic food, putting 280 million people worldwide. the world in a dangerous situation. risk of starvation. These disruptions have already affected prices and caused turmoil in many countries:
Rising inflation is expected to be one of the main factors deciding the outcome of the US midterm elections. The deepening cost-of-living crisis was a focal point in the recent French elections and helped push far-right leader Marine Le Pen closer than ever to the presidency. The turbulence related to the increase in prices has already been observed in PeruIndonesia, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
The situation will only worsen in the coming months. It will become increasingly costly for countries to secure basic products in international markets. As the risk of economic defaults increases, the financial space for governments to respond to the needs of their citizens will become more constrained, with the most vulnerable suffering even more.
We are not talking about a crisis that will come and go in a matter of weeks or months. For example, producing additional crops to cover the supply gap created by the war in Ukraine will take at least six months. The same is true for the lost supply of fertilizers. The energy industry will also be slow to adjust to the new dynamic: while oil production can in theory be increased rapidly, the environmental consequences of such a move must also be considered.
This perfect storm will hit us like never before if we don’t act now. People are suffering and will revolt in large numbers if political leaders around the world do not implement structural reforms, such as taxing wealth that does not produce quality jobs or development.
Those who have been lucky enough to remain protected from this devastation must also take action.
So far, relatively well-off people around the world have mostly responded to this deepening cost-of-living crisis with a few angry social media posts and op-eds (this one included). The international community’s response to the increased suffering of the world’s most vulnerable, beyond the commendable efforts of some activist groups and communities, has really gone no further than offering “thoughts and prayers”.
But such inaction at a time like this is a recipe for disaster. This crisis will only deepen and widen over time, eventually affecting each of us.
We are sailing in a perfect storm and without meaningful social solidarity and responsible action by state actors, we have very little chance of surviving unscathed.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.