Ukraine’s economy is expected to contract by 30%; The missiles hit the major port city of Odessa. Follow our live updates

The main Ukrainian port city of Odessa was hit by Russian missiles on Monday, killing one person and wounding five others, according to the Ukrainian armed forces.

In an update on Telegram, the region’s operational command said the casualties occurred when seven missiles were fired at the city, hitting a shopping mall and warehouse. The statement said that “rare Soviet-style missiles were clearly used.”

The attack occurred on the same day that the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, was visiting Odessa. Meanwhile, in Russia, President Putin and top Kremlin officials oversaw the “Victory Day” parade in Moscow. The event marks the victory of the Soviet Union over Nazi Germany in World War II.

— holly ellyatt

Russia has no plans to close the embassies of European countries despite the very bad state of relations between Russia and its neighbors, Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said, according to the state-run Ria Novosti news agency.

“This is not in our tradition,” Grushko said. “Therefore, we believe that the work of diplomatic missions is important,” Grushko said, in response to the question whether Russia could close European diplomatic missions in the region in the context of Western sanctions.

“We did not start a diplomatic war, a campaign of expulsions,” said the deputy head of the Russian Foreign Ministry.

Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24 after months of amassing more than 100,000 troops along the shared border. Moscow has tried to justify its invasion by saying it is protecting ethnic Russians in the country and has falsely claimed that kyiv’s leaders are “Nazis”.

Ukraine and geopolitical experts say that Russia has created groundless justifications for the invasion as it wants to stop Ukraine’s pro-Western drive and reassert its power and influence over the country.

— holly ellyatt

Russia’s underestimation of Ukrainian resistance and its “best case” planning have led to demonstrable operational failures, the UK Ministry of Defense said on Tuesday.

Those flaws prevented President Vladimir Putin from announcing a significant military success in Ukraine at the Victory Day parade in Moscow on Monday.

“It is very likely that Russia’s invasion plan was based on the mistaken assumption that it would encounter limited resistance and be able to quickly surround and avoid population centers,” the ministry said in its latest intelligence update on Twitter.

This assumption led the Russian forces to attempt to conduct the initial phase of the operation “with a light and precise approach” aimed at achieving quick victory at minimal cost.

“This miscalculation led to unsustainable losses and a subsequent reduction in Russia’s operational focus,” the ministry said.

— holly ellyatt

The war in Ukraine is hitting both Russia and kyiv’s economy hard, with both expected to see sharp drops in economic output, according to research from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) released on Tuesday.

Russia’s economy, hit by international sanctions, is expected to contract by 10% in 2022, while the invasion of Ukraine, which has caused great damage to economic centers and the production of agricultural producers, forecasts that the economy of Ukraine will contract by 30% this year. the EBRD said.

“With GDP growth of 3.4% recorded in 2021 a distant memory, the war is putting Ukraine’s economy under enormous strain, with heavy devastation to infrastructure and production capacities,” the EBRD said. . It is estimated that between 30% and 50% of companies have completely stopped operations in Ukraine, causing about half of all employees to lose their jobs and income.

That latest gross domestic product forecast for Ukraine is a 10 percentage point downward revision from the bank’s projections released in March.

Ukraine’s GDP is forecast to recover to 25% next year, the EBRD said, but that’s assuming substantial reconstruction work is already underway.

— holly ellyatt

At least one million Ukrainians have been “forcibly relocated” and sent to Russia, according to a Ukrainian human rights official quoted by NBC News.

“The occupiers not only hide their crimes, but also relocate all those they consider untrustworthy,” said Lyudmyla Denisova, Ukraine’s ombudsman for human rights.

“We have evidence that the forced deportation was prepared in advance,” Denisova said, according to NBC News. “There are facts that confirm that Russia had directives for its districts on how many Ukrainians and where to deport them.”

NBC News and CNBC were unable to confirm those claims.

An estimated 20,000 Ukrainians are in “filtration camps,” with most sent to Russia, while the fate of the rest is unknown, Denisova added, NBC News reported.

Last month, the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine documented some 109 cases of alleged detention or enforced disappearance of civilians since the invasion began.

However, local officials said the figure does not represent the tens of thousands of Ukrainians who have been deported through “filtration camps”.

—Chelsea Ong

Just hours after the US announced it would suspend tariffs on Ukrainian steel for a year, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal expressed appreciation for the speed with which the Biden administration acted on the issue.

Shmyhal said he first discussed the tariffs with Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo when he visited Washington on April 21.

Less than 3 weeks later, the US announced that the current 25% tariff would not apply to steel from war-torn Ukraine for at least a year.

The tariff suspension is the latest example of the White House and federal agencies cutting red tape in Washington to get money, weapons and humanitarian supplies to Ukraine.

— Cristina Wilkie

President Joe Biden has changed course very publicly in his quest to pass a $33 billion emergency financing package for Ukraine through Congress.

“Previously, I recommended that Congress take overdue action on much-needed funding for COVID treatments, vaccines, and testing, as part of the Ukraine companion bill,” Biden said in a statement.

Recently, however, Biden says he was told that Republicans in Congress are not prepared to vote to pass a Covid bill any time soon.

Given the reality of the situation, linking the two funding requests, as he had initially proposed, would have effectively meant delaying money Ukraine desperately needed to give Congress time to debate Covid funding.

“We cannot afford to delay this vital war effort,” Biden said. “Therefore, I am prepared to accept that these two measures move separately, so that the Ukraine aid bill can reach my desk immediately.”

Biden’s change of strategy was also embraced by Democratic leaders in Congress, who have said they are prepared to move quickly on a separate Ukraine bill. It is expected to be relatively easy to pass with bipartisan support.

— Cristina Wilkie