A Russian submarine passes Istanbul while transiting the Bosphorus in February 2022. Turkey is the gatekeeper between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean.
Ozan Kose | Afp | fake images
There is a Turkish saying: “Did your ships sink in the Black Sea?” The expression wonders when a person is lost in thought of her, trying to solve a seemingly intractable problem.
It turns out that this is the same body of water that has Turkey on a geopolitical tightrope since Russia invaded Ukraine and began military operations from those waters, because Turkey controls access to the Black Sea.
After the Turkish War of Independence officially ended with the Treaty of Lausanne in 1923, the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits were demilitarized. Access to and from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean came under the control of an International Straits Commission.
But with the political situation in Europe deteriorating before World War II, Turkey sought to change the agreement and negotiated the Montreux Convention in 1936. To this day, Turkey’s control of the straits between Europe and Asia gives it a unique sea power.
The Bosphorus and the Dardanelles are the only water routes into or out of the Black Sea. That gives Turkey leverage over how Russia’s navy can move.
Bryn Bache | CNBC
We could witness a scenario where Russia claims that the war is over, but the international community and Turkey do not acknowledge this.
Sinan Ulgen
former Turkish diplomat
In effect, Turkey’s Montreux enforcement prevents Russia from reinforcing its Black Sea fleet from abroad, or moving warships now in the Black Sea back to the Mediterranean.
“These provisions do not change the balance of power in the Black Sea very much,” Sinan Ulgen told CNBC. The former Turkish diplomat is now a visiting professor at Carnegie Europe.
“However,” Ulgen said, “once these Russian ships belonging to the Black Sea fleet are in the Black Sea, they will not be able to return to the Mediterranean.” In the long term, that could pose a problem for the projection capabilities of Russian power in the eastern Mediterranean and particularly in Syria”.
The sinking of the Russian warship Moskva in the Black Sea on April 14 highlighted Russia’s dilemma: Moscow has to convince Turkey to open the Bosphorus and Dardanelles if it wants to replace the Moskva, which was Russia’s flagship in the Black Sea, or move the Black Sea fleet away from Ukraine.
Growing tension between Turkey and Russia?
Moscow and Ankara have yet to experience strong disagreements with each other over Ukraine. But there is concern that their relationship could become more strained.
turkey is trying to negotiate peace between Russia and Ukraine and has not imposed sanctions on Russia.
But Turkey is a member of NATO. And in what may be a sign of escalation between Turkey and Russia, Turkey on Saturday closed its airspace to Russian planes trying to fly to Syria.
In 2015, Turkey shot down a Russian plane on its border with Syria, where Moscow was fighting on behalf of Syrian strongman Bashar al-Assad. Moscow responded with a ban on imports of Turkish food and workers.
Ulgen said that the Montreux Convention could again pit Turkey and Russia against each other.
“It is not clear how long the Article 19 mandate will prevail,” he said, adding that “it was triggered by the recognition on the Turkish side that there is a war.”
“We could witness a scenario,” he said, “where Russia claims the war is over, but the international community and Turkey do not recognize it.”
Ulgen said he believes that Turkey will continue to abide by the letter of the Montreux Convention, because applying flexibility for one side in the war could create tremendous pressure from the other side.
“Turkey would not want to find itself in that position,” he said.